Creating Future Scenarios
In the past, you could project the present onto the future, for it would take a long time before reality caught up to you. This is no longer viable in today’s dynamic world. You need to create future scenarios. Sure, it’s impossible to predict the future, but that’s no reason for not thinking about it. And fortunately, creating future scenarios is not as difficult as you might think.
Future scenarios begin by asking a core question. Next, you need to consider the six PESTEL factors:
Once these driving forces have been carefully researched and discussed, you should identify the two driving forces that are a) most crucial for your core question and b) hardest to predict.
By considering the extremes of both driving factors you end up with four scenarios that are all probable, but not necessarily likely. Now, it’s time to discuss the impact of each scenario on the core question. How should you react?
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